Not Knowing-ness
For years, boardrooms have talked about uncertainty. Volatile markets, shifting regulations, geopolitical unrest—all framed within a risk register, as if they could be contained in neat boxes with probability scores and mitigation plans.
But what we face now goes deeper than uncertainty. It’s what I call not knowing-ness.
Not knowing-ness is more than the absence of facts. It’s the recognition that, in many cases, the facts do not yet exist. The landscape is being shaped in real time—by climate disruption, AI adoption, generational value shifts, political fragmentation. Boards can no longer rely on the idea that, given enough data and analysis, the truth will emerge. Sometimes, there is no precedent to guide us.
Why it Matters in the Boardroom
Boards are designed to be stewards of continuity—safeguarding the long-term health of an organization. But when the ground keeps moving, governance requires something different: the courage to act without knowing. That means asking better questions, acknowledging the limits of expertise, and creating conditions where multiple perspectives can surface quickly.
It also means unlearning old habits. Too often, directors want to tidy things up into linear cause-and-effect chains. Yet not knowing-ness resists neatness. It forces us to accept ambiguity, sit in discomfort, and hold competing truths at once. This is not weakness—it is a new kind of strength.
Where Does it Fit in a Risk Matrix?
Traditional risk matrices assume you can define a risk, assign a likelihood, and estimate an impact. Not knowing-ness breaks this model.
It’s a time when boards must think in terms of resilience rather than risk. This means focusing less on prediction and more on preparedness. Rather than asking, What will happen?, boards must ask, How ready are we for what we can’t yet see?
Managing the Discomfort
How do directors build comfort with not knowing? Three approaches stand out for me:
Shift from certainty to curiosity. Replace statements of fact with questions of possibility. Encourage exploration over closure.
Strengthen scenario thinking. Don’t fixate on “the” answer. Work with multiple plausible futures, testing how strategy holds across them.
Focus on adaptability. Invest in leadership capacity, culture, and systems that allow the organization to pivot—rather than in static plans.
The era of not knowing is not a passing phase—it is the boardroom’s future. Directors who can navigate it with curiosity, humility, and courage will not only guide their organizations more wisely but will also begin to reshape governance itself.