Rethinking Risk
In periods of geopolitical and economic volatility, I’ve noticed the same pattern play out again and again. Risk conversations speed up. Requests for updates multiply. New information arrives constantly, each data point demanding attention.
What I’ve learned is that uncertainty doesn’t reward speed.
It rewards judgment.
Strategy, in practice, is rarely about answering every question immediately. It’s about deciding which questions actually matter.
One important distinction that’s especially useful is separating Level 1 from Level 2 information.
Level 1 vs. Level 2 information
Level 1 information is what shows up first: headlines, market movements, geopolitical developments, short-term metrics. It tells us what is happening.
Level 2 information sits underneath: the assumptions embedded in the strategy, structural dependencies, concentrations, patterns over time, and leading indicators. It tells us what this means for us.
Where boards can struggle is when Level 1 noise is allowed to drive Level 2 decisions.
Disruption reveals more than it creates
One way to think about disruption is to treat it as stress tests. They can surface what was already fragile: supply chain concentration, regulatory dependency, talent risk, capital structure strain.
The questions that matter most aren’t usually “What should we do about this event?” but “What is this revealing about our strategy, our assumptions, and our risk posture?”
Those are Level 2 questions.
Governance as an anchor
I’ve also seen governance either steady organizations or unintentionally amplify urgency. The boards that add the most value in uncertain times tend to:
Stay focused on strategic risk, not operational whiplash
Ask fewer, sharper questions
Create space for management judgment rather than crowding it out
Done well, governance doesn’t slow decision-making. It prevents zig-zagging.
Coherence beats prediction
Uncertainty invites scenario overload. Scenarios have their place, but only when paired with clear decision rules: what would cause a change in course, what won’t, and where steadiness matters most.
Over time, I’ve come to believe that strategy isn’t about certainty or prediction.
It’s about coherence.
And in a world that feels increasingly fragmented and volatile, coherence may be the most valuable risk management capability a board can bring to the table.